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Wednesday, 28 November 2012

MARKET EYE-BSE above 19,000; Goldman Sachs upgrades Indian stocks

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* The BSE index rises 0.83 percent, crossing 19,000
points for the first time since Oct. 5, while the NSE index
gains 0.77 percent.
* Gains track Asian shares that hit three-week highs on Thursday
as sentiment improved after a senior U.S. lawmaker said he was
"optimistic" on reaching a budget deal before the end of the
year to avoid a fiscal crisis.
* Traders say Moody's stable outlook on India has eased
potential ratings downgrade worries from S&P and Fitch in the
near term.
* On Thursday Goldman Sachs upgraded Indian stocks to
'overweight' from 'market-weight', citing growth recovery and
inflation moderation ahead. The investment bank pegged December
2013 Nifty target at 6,600 points.
* Leading the gains were mortgage lender HDFC, up 2.4
percent; ICICI Bank gains 1.4 percent while Tata
Motors is up 3.17 percent.

Posted By Low brokerage20:56

Gold sees mild recovery after big sell-off

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Gold prices staged a mild rebound Thursday in Asia on relief buying after they were slammed overnight over a host of concerns, disregarding for the moment optimism over the U.S. fiscal-cliff talks that boosted other risk assets.

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The mild recovery followed a convergence of technical selling, deflationary concerns and U.S. dollar strength that sank December futures by $25.80 during Wednesday’s regular session on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had slumped as much as $36.80 at one point.

But analysts differed on the outlook for gold prices.

“The sell-off has shaken out many weaker buyers who will now be looking to sell the rallies rather than buy the dips,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at GFT Markets.

“We believe that such significant liquidation is unlikely to be repeated, and that gold prices will tend to stabilize above $1,700 [an ounce],” said James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities.

Gold’s most actively traded futures contract, meant for delivery in February GCG3 +0.20%, also climbed 0.3% to $1,723.20, while spot prices gained $1 to $1,720.80.

The advance came as the ICE dollar index DXY -0.04% , a gauge of the greenback’s moves against a basket of six other major currencies, was little changed at 80.268, compared with 80.262 in North American trade late Wednesday.

Gold investors also appeared to shrug off U.S. President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner’s optimism that lawmakers would reach an agreement to avert the fiscal cliff.

Uncertainty related to the cliff — a reference to the possibility that $600 billion worth of tax increases and spending cuts will kick in from January unless politicians reach an agreement — has tended to lure investors to gold’s safe-haven appeal in the recent past. A stronger dollar also usually hurts gold prices.

Among other metals, December futures for silver SIZ2 -0.01%  and copper HGZ2 +0.28% rose 0.2% to $33.74 an ounce and 0.1% to $3.53 a pound, respectively.

Palladium futures PAZ2 -0.27%  for delivery in the same month slipped 0.2% to $672 an ounce.

January platinum futures PLF3 -0.07%  lost 0.2% to $1,608.60 an ounce.

Posted By Low brokerage20:50

New Home Sales in US

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New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.

 

ACTUAL  368 K

FORECAST 390 K

PREVIOUS 389 K

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Posted By Low brokerage07:01

Crude oil made new one-week low

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Crude oil futures declined during European morning hours on Wednesday, trading near the lowest level in a week as a lack of progress in negotiations for a deal to avoid a U.S. budget crisis before a January deadline weighed on appetite for riskier assets.
Oil traders were focusing on closely-watched weekly supply data on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later in the day.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD86.95 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.25% on the day.
New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 0.3% earlier in the day to hit a session low of USD86.92 a barrel.
Markets participants continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid spooked investors Tuesday after saying that there had been “little progress” made toward reaching a deal by the end of the year.
There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the five weeks left before the January 1 deadline.
Doubts over the Greek debt deal also weighed on sentiment. Greece’s constitutional lenders reached an agreement Tuesday to reduce Greece’s debt-reduction target by EUR40 billion to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020.
But the lack of detail on how Greece will implement reforms needed to meet its new debt targets dented investor confidence.
The news prompted investors to shun riskier assets, such as stocks and commodities, and flock to traditional safe haven assets like the U.S. dollar.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.1% to trade at 80.47.
A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive for importers holding other currencies.
Oil traders now looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. government on oil supplies later in the day to gauge the strength of demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.
The report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased by 0.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories were forecast to rise by 0.85 million barrels.
After markets closed Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.96 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks increased 2.28 million barrels.
The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for January delivery shed 0.3% to trade at USD109.58 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD22.63 a barrel.

Posted By Low brokerage06:17

Dollar pushes higher vs. rivals ahead of U.S. data

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The U.S. dollar was pushed higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, ahead of the release of U.S. economic data, as concerns over Greece's ability to handle its new debt target and U.S. fiscal policy decisions continued to dominate.
During European afternoon trade, the dollar was higher against the euro, with EUR/USD shedding 0.42% to 1.2889.
Although international lenders agreed on a plan to cut Greek debt, which will allow the country to secure more financial aid and avoid a default, market scepticism grew over a lack of detail on how Athens will implement the reforms needed to meet its new targets.
Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the looming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.
Sentiment weakened on Tuesday after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he was frustrated by the lack of progress in talks over the U.S. budget impasse in Washington.

Posted By Low brokerage06:13

A Trader !!!

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The Perfect Trader is patient with entries and exits, they are focused on what works not personal opinions. They do not worry about missed trades, the Perfect Trader does not boast while winning and does not become depressed while losing. They are never too proud to admit when they are wrong and exit their trade.  They do not give unsolicited advice to other traders because they know everyone trades their own system and their own plan.  They are not angered by the market action with losses because they take full responsibility for all their trades. They keep a detailed record of all their trades to learn from winners and losers.  They love trading and never stop learning and getting better. The Perfect Trader always protects their capital through risk management, always trusts in their methods, always has faith in themselves and method,  and always perseveres.

Posted By Low brokerage05:16

RECESSION CONTINUES IN GREECE

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Greece will enter its seventh year of recession in 2014 before the country’s economy begins to rebound in 2015, according to estimates in a report issued on Tuesday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which also urges support for the social groups that have been hit hardest by the crisis.

While the European Union projects a return to growth for Greece in 2014, the OECD expects the country’s economy to shrink in 2014 by 1.3 percent, “due mostly to fiscal retrenchment,” revising its earlier estimate for growth of 0.2 percent. It expects a 4.5 percent contraction in GDP next year.

“If growth proves lower than assumed in the government’s fiscal plans, then the automatic stabilizers should be allowed to operate, even if this means missing the set targets,” the report states. “The most vulnerable strata will have to be protected from any further social cuts,” it adds.

The OECD sees public debt rising to 189 percent of GDP next year and to 195 percent in 2014 unless additional debt reduction measures are taken, from 177 percent this year. The report was drafted before the Eurogroup decision on Monday that eased Greece’s loan terms.

The budget deficit is expected to end up at 6.9 percent this year and drop to 4.6 percent in two years’ time. The current account deficit is seen dropping to 2.3 percent in 2014 from 5.5 percent this year, while exports are expected to grow by 6.1 percent by 2014 and imports to shrink by 3.2 percent.

The report adds that unemployment will continue to break one record after another and acknowledges that the economy suffered additional pressures this year owing to the tough but absolutely necessary fiscal adjustment process that has led to a reduction of salaries, trust and external demand.

The rebound is connected with the strengthening of international commerce, the restoration of confidence in Greece and the recovery of the country’s competitiveness. The OECD also sees a key role in the implementation of the structural measures that include the aggressive combating of tax evasion, an improvement in the efficiency of public administration, a lifting of market barriers and the opening up of competition.

Posted By Low brokerage05:14

Important Datas today

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data

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Posted By Low brokerage03:40

Good China data, untraded shares slam market

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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Good Chinese economic data seem to lead to bad Chinese stock performance lately, as investors appear more worried the government will hold back on stimulus, or dump shares on the market.

Yet again, the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.89%  headed to fresh multiyear lows Wednesday, trading 0.8% lower in the early afternoon after ending the morning at its lowest intraday level since January 2009.

Wednesday’s weakness follows Tuesday’s upbeat data showing profits at large industrial companies jumped 20.5% in October from a year earlier, as investors worried the numbers made it less likely that Beijing would offer credit-stimulus measures to support the economy in the immediate future.

Uwe Parpart, chief strategist at Reorient Financial in Hong Kong, said another big factor weighing on the market included concerns that untraded shares in state-owned corporations could soon be released to the public.

“It is the equivalent of a monetary overhang that could, at any given time, be released into the market, so it’s like a Damocles sword hanging,” he said.

Unlikely most other major stock markets, retail investors dominate in China in terms of their holdings in actively traded shares, while institutional investors are less prominent.

Parpart said this fact means China’s domestic market is more prone to crowd psychology and thus more vulnerable to selling pressure in spite of convincing data showing conditions are stabilizing.

Parpart wasn’t convinced the crowd was right, however, saying the Shanghai market was “a very compelling buying opportunity right now,” despite its downward trajectory.

Posted By Low brokerage00:03