Now today's list....
Thursday, November 15
00:00 SGD Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY) 3.9% 3.2%
All Day Holiday Indonesia - Islamic New Year (Hijri)
All Day Holiday Brazil - Proclemation of The Republic
01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) 0.0% 0.0%
02:00 EUR German GDP (YoY) 0.8% 0.5%
02:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) 0.2% 0.3%
03:00 HUF Hungarian GDP (YoY) -1.1% -1.3%
03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) -0.3% -0.3%
04:00 EUR Italian GDP (YoY) -2.9% -2.6%
04:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report
04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) -0.5% -0.8%
04:30 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) 1.7% 2.5%
04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% 0.6%
04:50 EUR French 5-Year BTAN Auction 0.92%
04:50 EUR French 3-Year BTAN Auction 0.34%
04:50 EUR French 4-Year BTAN Auction 0.61%
04:50 EUR French 2-Year BTAN Auction 0.19%
05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.2% -0.2%
05:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 1.5% 1.5%
05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) 2.5% 2.5%
06:30 INR Indian M3 Money Supply 13.10%
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3210K 3127K
08:30 USD CPI (YoY) 2.1% 2.0%
08:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) 2.0% 2.0%
08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -6.7 -6.2
08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.30% 1.50%
08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 375K 355K
08:30 USD CPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.6%
08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
09:50 USD Bloomberg Consumer Confidence -34.4
10:00 USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ) 7.58%
10:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 2.0 5.7
10:30 CAD BoC Review
10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -14B 21B
11:00 USD Gasoline Inventories -0.843M 2.875M
11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.943M 1.766M
13:20 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
14:45 USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
19:00 SGD Singaporean GDP (YoY) 0.9% 1.3%
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong stocks plowed sharply lower in early Thursday trading, with banking and resource shares among the leading decliners. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.83% fell 1.1% to 21,210.43, with mainland Chinese shares also weak as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 1.6% and the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.31% fell 0.6%. Bank stocks marched lower after their U.S. peers sold down amid growing concerns about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" of potential tax hikes and spending cuts. Top Hang Seng Index component HSBC Holdings PLC HK:5 -0.47%HBC -1.00% lost 0.9%, while Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. HK:1288 -1.48% ACGBF -2.63%fell 2.1%, ICBC lost 1.6%, and Bank of Communications Co. HK:3328 -1.46% BKFCF +9.23%retreated 1.8%. Energy shares also dropped, with China expected to cut retail fuel prices soon. Cnooc Ltd. HK:883 -0.62% CEO -0.26% fell 1.3%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) HK:386 -0.50% SNP +0.33% gave up 1.8%, and PetroChina Co. HK:857 -0.39%PTR +0.05% traded 1% lower. Metal shares did even worse, despite a mixed performance for commodities overnight, with Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. HK:2600 -1.51% ACH -0.38%dropping 2.7%, and Angang Steel Co. HK:347 -1.50% ANGGF -3.85% lower by 2%. Meanwhile, shares of Internet major Tencent Holdings Ltd. HK:700 -4.56% TCTZF -3.71%plunged 5.3% after the firm's third-quarter results missed expectations, but stock in clothing maker Esprit Holdings Ltd. HK:330 +20.72% ESHDF -3.33% rocketed 22.4% higher after its former chairman Michael Ying raised his stake in the company.
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong stocks plowed sharply lower in early Thursday trading, with banking and resource shares among the leading decliners. The Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.83% fell 1.1% to 21,210.43, with mainland Chinese shares also weak as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 1.6% and the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.31% fell 0.6%. Bank stocks marched lower after their U.S. peers sold down amid growing concerns about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" of potential tax hikes and spending cuts. Top Hang Seng Index component HSBC Holdings PLC HK:5 -0.47%HBC -1.00% lost 0.9%, while Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. HK:1288 -1.48% ACGBF -2.63%fell 2.1%, ICBC lost 1.6%, and Bank of Communications Co. HK:3328 -1.46% BKFCF +9.23%retreated 1.8%. Energy shares also dropped, with China expected to cut retail fuel prices soon. Cnooc Ltd. HK:883 -0.62% CEO -0.26% fell 1.3%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) HK:386 -0.50% SNP +0.33% gave up 1.8%, and PetroChina Co. HK:857 -0.39%PTR +0.05% traded 1% lower. Metal shares did even worse, despite a mixed performance for commodities overnight, with Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. HK:2600 -1.51% ACH -0.38%dropping 2.7%, and Angang Steel Co. HK:347 -1.50% ANGGF -3.85% lower by 2%. Meanwhile, shares of Internet major Tencent Holdings Ltd. HK:700 -4.56% TCTZF -3.71%plunged 5.3% after the firm's third-quarter results missed expectations, but stock in clothing maker Esprit Holdings Ltd. HK:330 +20.72% ESHDF -3.33% rocketed 22.4% higher after its former chairman Michael Ying raised his stake in the company.
The current account deficit may touch 4.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in this fiscal as well, as upside risks to the external environment are rising for the economy, brokerage firm Nomura said today.
The brokerage had earlier forecast a tempered 3.8 per cent current account deficit (CAD), the difference between country’s total imports & transfers and total exports & outward transfers, for this fiscal, following steady fall in inward and outward shipments and the resultant narrowing of trade deficit in the first half of the fiscal.
In the past fiscal too CAD had hit a record of 4.2 per cent of GDP.
“With external situation remaining very worrying, we see more upside risks to our CAD projection of 3.8 per cent with the current trends suggesting that it could be as high as 4.2 per cent of GDP, which was recorded last fiscal,” Nomura India economists Sonal Varma and Aman Mohunta said in a note.
However, they blamed the latest spike in imports due to the import substitution, saying, “the phenomenon of rising imports and lower domestic output can be explained by increasing import substitution as a result of supply-side constraints and elevated inflation.”
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +0.96% gained 0.8%, but South Korea’s KospiKR:SEU -1.34% fell 1.7%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO -0.93% retreated 1.1%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI -0.90% dropped 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index CN:000001 -0.41% lost 0.6% ahead of the announcement of China’s new Communist Party leaders due later in the day.
The losses outside of Japan followed a sharp drop in U.S. stock markets Wednesday, as investors fretted about the “fiscal cliff” of potential tax hikes and spending cuts in January, as well as renewed tension in the Middle East. “Markets continue slowly to price in the fiscal-cliff risks. President Obama’s press conference suggests a significant gap remains between Republicans and Democrats on key issues, reducing the likelihood for a compromise in the eyes of the market,” strategists at Barclays Capital said, referring to the U.S. leader’s comments Wednesday.
“A cautious view on risky assets remains warranted until cliff risks have been successfully dealt with,” the Barclays analysts said.
Several Asia firms posted big share price moves on Thursday, with Hong Kong-listed Tencent Holdings Ltd. HK:700 -4.41% TCEHY -4.34% falling 5.7% after its third-quarter results missed estimates, with the Internet firm warning that online-advertising revenue growth may slow, due partly to softer Chinese economic growth. On the other hand, Hong Kong shares of Esprit Holdings Ltd. HK:330 +20.72% ESHDF -3.33% soared 19.8% after Michael Ying — the apparel firm’s chairman from 1993 to 2006 — upped his stake in the firm to 5.99% from 4.79%, according to reports.
In Tokyo, consumer electronics giant Sony Corp. JP:6758 -10.57% SNE -8.82% shot 10.9% lower in Tokyo after the global conglomerate announced after Wednesday’s close that it plans to issue the equivalent of about $1.85 billion in convertible bonds.
Facebook FB +12.59% rallied 12.6% to close at $22.36 Wednesday as the lockup period for more than 800 million shares — the third and biggest wave after the company’s initial public offering in May — expired. The latest lockup expiration is expected to nearly double the size of the company’s share float.
“I think the market is relieved that the infamous day has finally arrived,” Scott Sweet of IPO Boutique told MarketWatch.
Some analysts had been warning for weeks about the potential impact of the post-lockup wave which could double Facebook’s share float. Indeed, Facebook’s shares had slipped more than 13% from a post-earnings gain in late October by the beginning of this week — though the stock remained well above the record low of $17.55 seen in early September.
“Now, here we are and the stock is not getting pummeled,” Sweet said.
Other analysts had argued that the latest lockup expiration would not have as big an impact as two previous waves. The first one in mid-August, including about 270 million shares, was among the factors that sent Facebook’s down to its record low.
Facebook also has reeled from its controversial IPO in May, which triggered lawsuits from investors who accused the company and its underwriters of misleading them. Another key concern had been the company’s ability to grow its mobile ad business.
Those worries have eased since Facebook’s earnings report last month offered a more upbeat picture of its mobile ad business.
In a Wednesday note, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Youssef Squali said “patient investors” should “take advantage of the market dislocation that’s likely to ensue between now and year-end to accumulate the stock”
Carl Icahn and the fight for Netflix
Netflix is steeling itself to do battle with Carl Icahn, who bought a 10% stake and is pushing for its sale to a cash-rich technology company.
“Facebook is a long-term winner,” Squali wrote, saying the company “is showing accelerating revenue growth and early traction in mobile.”
Victor Anthony of Topeka Capital also sent a note to clients on Wednesday, outlining five reasons to buy Facebook despite the influx of new shares. He said the company has “cracked the mobile code,” and strong user engagement and its growing ad exchange and Instagram business are also positive factors.
“Bottom line is that mobile is now a tailwind for Facebook, as apposed to the headwind that it was just a few months ago,” Anthony wrote.
Sweet of IPO Boutique said the possibility of taxes rising and other issues related to the so-called “fiscal cliff” crisis apparently have been baked in to the shares and have not discouraged investors.
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said several factors may have also pushed the stock up.
“Clearly, the lockup expiration is priced in,” he told MarketWatch. “Clearly tons of longs have been waiting for it today. Clearly, the volume isn’t as great as the unlocked shares would suggest. And the shorts were hoping it would go down and they’re covering.”
“You’ve got a perfect storm of things that would drive the stock higher,” he added. “It’s a matter of supply and demand. The supply did not materialize the way people thought it would. And demand is reviving now.”
Facebook FB +12.59% rallied 12.6% to close at $22.36 Wednesday as the lockup period for more than 800 million shares — the third and biggest wave after the company’s initial public offering in May — expired. The latest lockup expiration is expected to nearly double the size of the company’s share float.
“I think the market is relieved that the infamous day has finally arrived,” Scott Sweet of IPO Boutique told MarketWatch.
Some analysts had been warning for weeks about the potential impact of the post-lockup wave which could double Facebook’s share float. Indeed, Facebook’s shares had slipped more than 13% from a post-earnings gain in late October by the beginning of this week — though the stock remained well above the record low of $17.55 seen in early September.
“Now, here we are and the stock is not getting pummeled,” Sweet said.
Other analysts had argued that the latest lockup expiration would not have as big an impact as two previous waves. The first one in mid-August, including about 270 million shares, was among the factors that sent Facebook’s down to its record low.
Facebook also has reeled from its controversial IPO in May, which triggered lawsuits from investors who accused the company and its underwriters of misleading them. Another key concern had been the company’s ability to grow its mobile ad business.
Those worries have eased since Facebook’s earnings report last month offered a more upbeat picture of its mobile ad business.
In a Wednesday note, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Youssef Squali said “patient investors” should “take advantage of the market dislocation that’s likely to ensue between now and year-end to accumulate the stock”
Carl Icahn and the fight for Netflix
Netflix is steeling itself to do battle with Carl Icahn, who bought a 10% stake and is pushing for its sale to a cash-rich technology company.
“Facebook is a long-term winner,” Squali wrote, saying the company “is showing accelerating revenue growth and early traction in mobile.”
Victor Anthony of Topeka Capital also sent a note to clients on Wednesday, outlining five reasons to buy Facebook despite the influx of new shares. He said the company has “cracked the mobile code,” and strong user engagement and its growing ad exchange and Instagram business are also positive factors.
“Bottom line is that mobile is now a tailwind for Facebook, as apposed to the headwind that it was just a few months ago,” Anthony wrote.
Sweet of IPO Boutique said the possibility of taxes rising and other issues related to the so-called “fiscal cliff” crisis apparently have been baked in to the shares and have not discouraged investors.
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said several factors may have also pushed the stock up.
“Clearly, the lockup expiration is priced in,” he told MarketWatch. “Clearly tons of longs have been waiting for it today. Clearly, the volume isn’t as great as the unlocked shares would suggest. And the shorts were hoping it would go down and they’re covering.”
“You’ve got a perfect storm of things that would drive the stock higher,” he added. “It’s a matter of supply and demand. The supply did not materialize the way people thought it would. And demand is reviving now.”
Gold prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday after Israeli airstrikes took out a senior Hamas military leader and quashed already ebbing demand for risk, which sent the dollar gaining as a safe-haven play.
Gold and the dollar trade inversely, and soft European and U.S. data also stoked demand for the safe-harbor greenback, which came at the yellow metal's expense.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery were down 0.28% at USD1,725.25 a troy ounce, up from a session low of USD1,722.85 and down from a high of USD1,726.05 a troy ounce.
Gold futures were likely to test support at USD1,717.85 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,733.85, Wednesday's high.
Israel launched a military offensive against Palestinian militants in Gaza earlier that killed a Hamas military leader, which sent oil prices higher on fears that fighting could aggravate tensions across the oil-rich Middle East and threaten supply.
Oil later pared back gains as markets refocused their attention on U.S. and European economies after a string of disappointing economic indicators hit the wire on both sides of the Atlantic, which sent the dollar gaining and gold and other commodities falling.
In the eurozone earlier, official data revealed that industrial production declined 2.5% in September, well beyond expectations for a more modest 1.9% decline.
The numbers sparked fears that the eurozone's preliminary gross domestic product rate for the third quarter will disappoint when released later Thursday.
France, Germany and Italy are also to release individual GDP reports.
Meanwhile in the U.S., lackluster sales data kept investors parked in the safe-haven dollar.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported earlier that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October, weaker than expectations for a 0.2% decline.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, came in flat last month.
Analysts were expecting core retail sales to rise 0.2% in October, after rising by an upwardly revised 1.2% in September.
Retail sales serve as a good barometer for U.S. economic health.
Meanwhile, separate data revealed that U.S. producer price inflation fell unexpectedly in October, while core prices also dipped.
The Labor Department reported that producer prices fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, after rising 1.1% in September.
The core producer price index declined 0.2% in October, defying expectations for a 0.1% increase, after coming in September.
Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff in the U.S. swayed investors away from risk as well, which bolstered the dollar against the greenback.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery was down 0.79% and trading at USD32.620 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery was up 0.30% and trading at USD3.458 a pound.
Natural gas futures rose more than 1% during U.S. morning trade on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s strong rally as market players looked ahead to a closely watched U.S. government report on natural gas supplies on Thursday, amid speculation the data could show the first withdrawal of the winter heating season.
Forecasts showing colder-than-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. in the coming week further supported the commodity.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.787 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, climbing 1.3%.
Earlier in the day, prices rose by as much as 1.75% to hit a session high of USD3.805 per million British thermal units, the strongest level since October 30.
Natural gas prices continued to draw support from expectations this Thursday’s storage data will show the first withdrawal of the U.S. heating season.
If so, it will be the earliest seasonal decline since 2007. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.
Early injection estimates range from a build of 15 billion cubic feet to a draw of 17 billion cubic feet, compared to last year's build of 20 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 17 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. gas supplies stood at 3.929 trillion cubic feet, an all-time record that surpasses the previous peak of 3.852 trillion cubic feet reached last November.
Stocks are 2.9% above a year ago and 6.6% above the five-year average for the week. In March, after an exceptionally warm winter, stockpiles were approximately 60% above average.
Meanwhile, updated weather forecasts released showed that cold weather was expected across most parts of the U.S. Southeast during the next five days.
The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that temperatures may be colder-than-normal across most of the eastern half of the U.S. through November 17.
Bullish speculators are betting on the colder weather increasing early-winter demand for the heating fuel.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in January rose 1% to trade at USD86.69 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery added 1% to trade at USD2.987 per gallon.
Gold prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday after Israeli airstrikes took out a senior Hamas military leader and quashed already ebbing demand for risk, which sent the dollar gaining as a safe-haven play.
Gold and the dollar trade inversely, and soft European and U.S. data also stoked demand for the safe-harbor greenback, which came at the yellow metal's expense.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery were down 0.28% at USD1,725.25 a troy ounce, up from a session low of USD1,722.85 and down from a high of USD1,726.05 a troy ounce.
Gold futures were likely to test support at USD1,717.85 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,733.85, Wednesday's high.
Israel launched a military offensive against Palestinian militants in Gaza earlier that killed a Hamas military leader, which sent oil prices higher on fears that fighting could aggravate tensions across the oil-rich Middle East and threaten supply.
Oil later pared back gains as markets refocused their attention on U.S. and European economies after a string of disappointing economic indicators hit the wire on both sides of the Atlantic, which sent the dollar gaining and gold and other commodities falling.
In the eurozone earlier, official data revealed that industrial production declined 2.5% in September, well beyond expectations for a more modest 1.9% decline.
The numbers sparked fears that the eurozone's preliminary gross domestic product rate for the third quarter will disappoint when released later Thursday.
France, Germany and Italy are also to release individual GDP reports.
Meanwhile in the U.S., lackluster sales data kept investors parked in the safe-haven dollar.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported earlier that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October, weaker than expectations for a 0.2% decline.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, came in flat last month.
Analysts were expecting core retail sales to rise 0.2% in October, after rising by an upwardly revised 1.2% in September.
Retail sales serve as a good barometer for U.S. economic health.
Meanwhile, separate data revealed that U.S. producer price inflation fell unexpectedly in October, while core prices also dipped.
The Labor Department reported that producer prices fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, after rising 1.1% in September.
The core producer price index declined 0.2% in October, defying expectations for a 0.1% increase, after coming in September.
Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff in the U.S. swayed investors away from risk as well, which bolstered the dollar against the greenback.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery was down 0.79% and trading at USD32.620 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery was up 0.30% and trading at USD3.458 a pound.
Natural gas futures rose more than 1% during U.S. morning trade on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s strong rally as market players looked ahead to a closely watched U.S. government report on natural gas supplies on Thursday, amid speculation the data could show the first withdrawal of the winter heating season.
Forecasts showing colder-than-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. in the coming week further supported the commodity.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.787 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, climbing 1.3%.
Earlier in the day, prices rose by as much as 1.75% to hit a session high of USD3.805 per million British thermal units, the strongest level since October 30.
Natural gas prices continued to draw support from expectations this Thursday’s storage data will show the first withdrawal of the U.S. heating season.
If so, it will be the earliest seasonal decline since 2007. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.
Early injection estimates range from a build of 15 billion cubic feet to a draw of 17 billion cubic feet, compared to last year's build of 20 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 17 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. gas supplies stood at 3.929 trillion cubic feet, an all-time record that surpasses the previous peak of 3.852 trillion cubic feet reached last November.
Stocks are 2.9% above a year ago and 6.6% above the five-year average for the week. In March, after an exceptionally warm winter, stockpiles were approximately 60% above average.
Meanwhile, updated weather forecasts released showed that cold weather was expected across most parts of the U.S. Southeast during the next five days.
The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that temperatures may be colder-than-normal across most of the eastern half of the U.S. through November 17.
Bullish speculators are betting on the colder weather increasing early-winter demand for the heating fuel.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in January rose 1% to trade at USD86.69 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery added 1% to trade at USD2.987 per gallon.
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